Hurricane Sandy's Transformation

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A lot has been said of the severe damage that may accompany Hurricane Sandy---10-20 inches of precipitation west and southwest of the storm, coastal wind gusts exceeding 80 mph, severe damage to barrier beaches, flooding over western L.I. sound and other vulnerable locations.  The threat is great and imminent.

But what has not been discussed in depth is the extraordinary transformation that will occur as Sandy makes landfall and moves inland....from a tropical to an extratropical storm, the first with a warm core and the latter with a cold core.  I will talk about that here.

Right now Hurricane Sandy is almost exactly one day from landfall on New Jersey.  It possesses sustained winds of 75 mph and a central pressure of 950 hPa, and is very large storm and will expand even more.  Here is a recent infrared image, showing the band of moisture feeding into the center of the storm.


As I have mentioned before, hurricanes and tropical storms derive their energy from the warmth and moisture of warm oceans, and Sandy is no exception.  Such tropical storms are warm-core systems, with the warmest air in their centers.  In general, tropical storms are not found in regions with large horizontal changes in temperature.

 Recently, there has been a substantial warm anomaly of the sea surface temperature (SST) of the western Atlantic (SST much warmer than normal), which helps tropical systems like Sandy move northward and stay strong longer than normal.  Here is a recent map showing the SST anomaly:  much warmer than normal along the path of Sandy, by over 1.5C!  So a very attractive welcome mat had been laid for tropical storms over the western Atlantic.


Now midlatitude or extratropical storms get their energy not from warm oceans, but rather horizontal temperature changes---generally warmer to the south, cooler to the north.  It turns out that the temperature changes on our planet are concentrated in the midlatitudes...and this temperature gradient fuels nearly all of the storms we experience in the winter.  Midlatitude storms tend to be cold-core, with the coolest temperatures in their center.

Sometimes a tropical storm moves northward and undergoes an amazing transformation, from a warm core tropical system to a cold-core extratropical system, and switches its energy supply from the warmth and moisture of a tropical ocean to the temperature gradients of the midlatitudes.  This is called Extratropical Transition (ET) in the business.

Sandy is about to go through the transformation.

Let me show you.  The figures below show you the temperatures and pressure pattern (actually heights of the 850 hPa pressure surface) at around 5000 ft above sea level for three times (Monday morning, Monday evening, and Tuesday morning--Seattle Time).  At the initial time there is warm air at the center of the storm (the dark orange color).  Fairly symmetric structure (which is typical of tropical systems).


By tomorrow evening, just as the storm is making landfall,  the warm core is fading, and temperature structure is becoming much more asymmetric.

 By Tuesday morning, the transformation is complete....cold air has reached the center of the storm and the warmest air is found far to the east of the center


Many tropical storms weaken when they go through this transition, but for a small subset the opposite occurs.   The two energy sources work synergistically for a while, resulting in an strengthening and expanding system....such is the forecast fate of Sandy.

In fact, during this transition stage, Sandy will continue to intensity until it makes landfall.  Here is the latest forecast from the NWS NAM model:

956 hPa low center at 2 AM Monday morning (PDT)


12 hours later 948 hPa pressure (2 PM Seattle Time).


My next blog will take a look at the scorecard for this storm....and return to talking about Northwest weather.  And there is a lot to talk about, including an atmospheric river situation setting up and 5-10 inches forecast over the next 72 hr over NW mountains.

Strong Easterly Flow and the Graveyard of the Pacific

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During the day the difference in pressure across the Cascades has increased as pressure has progressively fallen over the Pacific.   Right now the difference is around 7 hPa and rising, and such an offshore-directed pressure gradient is associated with increasingly easterly winds.

To illustrate, take a look at the sea level pressure forecast for tomorrow (Wednesday) at 10 AM.  An amazing large and intense low pressure area over the Pacific.  In fact, it appears to cover virtually the entire NE Pacific!
This offshore pressure gradient will get an added boast as a weak low pressure disturbance, embedded in this giant low rotates around near us.  There are several places that will get a good blow from this:  offshore over the eastern Pacific, along the western WA foothills (hello Enumclaw, Black Diamond, and North Bend), and along the western portions of the Strait of Juan de Fuca.  And later in the event NW Washington get strong winds.  Lets look at the last WRF surface sustained (not gust) winds for the next day.  First, 4 AM tomorrow (Wed).  20 kt sustained in the foothills (some folks will get gust to 40), and accelerating winds in the Strait, with sustained 25+ kt near Tatoosh Island.  This is not a good set up for extensive, strong winds in the foothills--the wind are not easterly aloft at crest level.

 By 4 PM tomorrow, 30+ kt over the western Strait and similar winds northeast of the Olympics.  Those poor, sunburned folks in Sequim will get now be getting some wind burns as well.  Too windy for golf.

The western Strait can be very windy during such offshore flow, with air accelerating towards the west.  Strong winds, lots of rocks, and often clouds/fog make this region very dangerous for marine traffic, and, in fact, there have been numerous shipwrecks there, giving it the appellation of "Graveyard of the Pacific." During the days of sail (1830-1925) there were 137 major shipwrecks in the immediate vicinity of the entrance to the Strait. A major and tragic example is the 1906 shipwreck of the Valencia, with the loss of nearly 150 lives (see graphic).

The Valencia

The National Weather Service has a buoy in the middle of the western entrance to the Strait (46087)...here are the recent wind and pressure observations there.  Pressure is falling quickly and wind have increased to about 25 kt...and will increase further tonight.


Rain returns tomorrow afternoon, but with this large low over the NE Pacific, most of the flow will go south of us into southern Oregon and northern CA.  Here is the forecast precipitation for the 72 hr ending Saturday at 4 AM.  Huge amounts over northern CA.

Snow?   We will have relatively warm, southwesterly flow so Snoqualmie is out of luck.  Very marginal for Stevens.  Want snow?  You will have to go to Baker, Crystal, and Whistler.

Update Wed AM

          Easterly flow in the foothills can produce large temperature variations. While many locations cooled into the 30s last night, those areas experiencing easterly (downslope) flow are in the upper 40s and even lower 50s.  Here are temps at 6 AM this morning...look carefully and you will see this big contrasts over the eastern part of the terrain (the map extends from Seattle to North Bend)::

Heavy Rains and Massive Snow

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It was a warm, cloudy day here in the Northwest with large contrasts of rain (see figure below of the observed 24-h precipitation ending 7 PM Thursday): over 3 inches in the Olympics, but only light rain over the lowlands, and a few sprinkles across the basin of eastern WA.   Why so little over the Cascades but lots over the southern slopes of the Olympics?  The key reason is that the flow aloft was southerly (from the south) and you can't get good upslope on the Cascades from the direction.  But you can get good upslope over the south-facing slopes of the Olympics.

But the real precipitation story is to our south, over southern Oregon and northern CA, where some locations got over four inches (pink color) and over two inches was commonplace.  But this is just the beginning.

 With a large low center center over the NE Pacific and persistent strong flow pushing eastward to our south, northern CA is going to get hammered during the next several days.
Flooding is inevitable.

Take a look at the latest UW WRF model precipitation forecast for the next 72 h:  huge amounts, including over 10 inches in "favored" upslope locations.  The Olympics and north Cascades are also wet.

Tonight I will premiere a new figure created by UW WRF modeler Dave Ovens:  72hr snowfall!  Lots (feet) of snow over the mountains of BC, and the higher elevations in the Cascades do very well indeed (foot or more).  Most of the accumulation at pass and ski area elevation will occur later in the weekend as the freezing level drops and the wind direction becomes more westerly.   The Sierra Nevada range goes to white (literally)--more than 45 inches of snow at higher elevations!  The folks at Tahoe must be salivating. 

Here is a close up of the 72h snowfall ending on Monday at 4PM for Washington.  Baker and Rainier will be buried.  Stevens, at least a foot.   Snoqualmie will pick up a half-foot or so.  Not sure whether it will be enough to allow them to open.

Weather Report - November 26, 2012

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Wet Weather Possible Next Few Days

Things are expected to get warmer over the coming days as southerly winds pump in warmer and moister air. Moisture will build ahead of our next storm system. Iso’d showers will be possible early Monday leading to sct’d showers and t-storms by afternoon. Showers and t-storms will be likely late Monday into early Tuesday as a cold front moves through South Louisiana. The weather once again turns cooler by late Tuesday with temperatures near normal for mid week. Yet another warming trend is expected to end the week. A frontal boundary is expected to stall to our north on Friday. That will keep clouds and iso’d showers in the forecast starting Friday and carrying over into the weekend. - Jeff Morrow / WAFB Storm Team

Weather Report - November 28, 2012

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Cooler Weather Hangs Around for a Few Days

An annoying foggy mist hung around last night into the morning start today. But that mist will leave behind some very nice weather by afternoon. Sunshine will be bright this afternoon with highs settling in the low 60°s. Temperatures will be cold early Thursday as morning lows dip into the mid to upper 30°s. As we move into the afternoon on Thursday winds will shift to a warmer southerly flow. That will help a warming trend occur as we roll into late week. Enough moisture might be present to squeeze out a spot or two of rain Friday and Saturday as an upper level storm system passes. Otherwise expect partly cloudy and mild conditions for the weekend. Our next cold front will occur by the middle of next week. Sct’d showers and t-storms are currently in the forecast for next Tuesday. - Jeff Morrow / WAFB Storm Team

Panthers' game day weather ... and a look ahead

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If you're headed to the Panthers' home opener today against the New Orleans Saints, be prepared to get wet.

It's not a 100 percent lock-cinch certainty that you'll get wet today at Bank of America Stadium, but the chances are certainly higher than that of, say, the Cleveland Browns winning the Super Bowl this season.

At 10:30 a.m., there were two clusters of showers near Charlotte.  One area stretched from near University City up to north of Salisbury. That rain won't affect the Panthers' game.

The other cluster of showers covered Cleveland, Gaston and Lincoln counties, and it's moving toward Charlotte.

There's one thing working in the favor of Panthers' fans.  The dome of high pressure which has covered our area for the past week was extremely dry, and the atmosphere became very dry. So it's taking time for the increased moisture to work its way down through the atmosphere to the ground.  That's why we've had only sprinkles over most of the region so far today.

But as the day goes on, the atmosphere will moisten, and rain will be more likely. Those showers to the west of Charlotte would be in the vicinity of Bank of America Stadium well before game time, if they hold together.  As of 10:30 a.m., there's nothing on the radar immediately behind them.

Any rain that falls today will be showery (rather than constant), but it could last for 45 minutes or an hour.  Thunderstorm chances are low, but they're not zero.  Computer models indicate there'll be a bit of instability in the atmosphere Sunday afternoon, so a storm could develop.  But rain showers will be more likely.

The National Weather Service is giving it a 40 percent chance for rain Sunday afternoon.

Looking ahead: The computer models are waffling a bit on this, but they're consistent in predicting a strong low pressure system to form in the Gulf of Mexico and then move northeast on Monday and Tuesday. This is almost like a winter pattern. Those winter Gulf lows are responsible for our snow and ice.

In mid-September, obviously, we'll have rain to worry about.

If the center of the low slides up the Blue Ridge mountains, the Charlotte area could get a couple inches of rain. If the center stays farther west, cutting a path up through western Georgia and central or eastern Tennessee, we'd escape the heavy rain but would be in a severe thunderstorm corridor.

We'll be able to get a better on idea on this late Sunday or Monday.

Weather changes coming for Charlotte

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It's raining, a stiff breeze is blowing out of the northeast, and the temperatures are locked in the lower 60s -- about 15 degrees below average.

Yes, autumn is here. But it won't be here for long.

A cold air wedge -- a Piedmont phenomena I've written about before (http://bit.ly/PRBP1s) -- has established itself today across much of North Carolina and South Carolina. It means we'll have a chilly, wet day, with temperatures probably not escaping the lower and middle 60s.

Computer models indicate there could be a break from the rain, lasting several hours, Monday afternoon and evening in the Charlotte region. But more rain will return later this evening.

Rainfall amounts won't be heavy, as most areas will get a half-inch or less.  This is exactly what the lawn doctor ordered for anyone who fertilized and seeded over the weekend.

These cold air wedge situations tend to be most common in autumn and spring, but they sometimes develop in the winter -- occasionally, with very important ramifications.  Many of our sleet and ice storm episodes happen during a cold air wedge, as warm, most air from the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic is carried over a layer of cold air trapped near the surface.

We'll need to watch this pattern as we approach winter.  If we keep having cold air wedges, or if low pressure continues developing in the Gulf of Mexico and pushing up across the Southeast (as it is doing today, for the second time in recent weeks), then that could be a big hint about our winter weather pattern.

The cold air wedge is forecast to break down Tuesday, with the low pressure system moving north of the Carolinas, and the counter-clockwise flow of air eventually scouring away the layer of cold air near the surface. As that happens, a cold front will cross the region.

It's possible that a few strong thunderstorms could develop Tuesday as the front approaches, but those most likely would be south of Charlotte. Regardless, it'll be a lot warmer Tuesday, as the wedge dissipates. Highs are expected to reach the upper 70s.

That sets the stage for another big change, from Wednesday through Friday. We'll be back in some late-summer weather, with sunny to partly sunny skies and afternoon highs of 80 degrees or even a little warmer.

The next cold front will approach the region over the weekend, so the forecast for Saturday and Sunday is very iffy, at this point.  For now, the National Weather Service is going with partly cloudy and mid 70s Saturday, then low 70s with a small chance of rain Sunday.

Naming winter storms touches off a fight

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It's our job to give you all the weather news, and sometimes that means taking you beyond cold fronts and low pressure systems -- into what's happening behind the scenes.

And behind the scenes, the two for-profit giants of the meteorology world are embroiled in a spat over naming winter storms.

The Weather Channel recently announced that it will name "noteworthy" winter storms. It says doing so will make it easier for the public to keep track of developing winter storms and plan accordingly.

In other words, the way the National Hurricane Center affixes names -- in alphabetical order -- to tropical storms and hurricanes, the Weather Channel plans to do the same in winter. Most of the names date back to famous names in Greek and Roman history, but the Finnish name Ukko also is on the list for 2012-13.

I'll give you a link to the Weather Channel's story and list of names later. But back to the dispute.

A few days after Atlanta-based Weather Channel made its announcement, Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather issued a news release, criticizing the idea. AccuWeather officials say the storm-naming will confuse the public, rather than help.

Let's try to be even-handed here.

The Weather Channel says major winter storms already have been named -- such as "The President's Day Storm" and "Snowmageddon."

"Naming winter storms will raise awareness, which will lead to more pro-active efforts to plan ahead, resulting in less impact on the public overall," says Tom Niziol of the Weather Channel.

The company says it will not name a storm more than three days before it threatens a metropolitan area, and it will take other factors into consideration -- the time of day and day of week that the storm will strike, for example.

AccuWeather disagrees.

Joel Myers, founder and president of the company, says his company has studied the idea for years and decided it would be doing a disservice to the public.

"The Weather Channel has confused media spin with science and public safety and is doing a disservice to the field of meteorology and public service," said Myers, who has a doctorate in meteorology. "We have explored this issue for 20 years and have found that this is not good science and ... will actually mislead the public."

Myers also says many of the worst winter events are localized.

The National Weather Service has not commented on the dispute and apparently plans to remain at arm's length. That means the Weather Channel's names might not get much publicity, beyond the Weather Channel (and perhaps its parent company, NBC).

Here's a link to the story: http://wxch.nl/QJQw8y.

And here's a link to the list of names: http://wxch.nl/QJS9TO

Don't expect much improvement today

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I could be wrong about this, and I hope I'm wrong.

But if you're planning your wardrobe for Tuesday, expect Charlotte's weather to be an awful lot like Monday's.

You might have heard forecasts for some clearing Tuesday afternoon, but chances are any clearing in the immediate Charlotte area won't happen until shortly before sunset. In other words, we'll remain in the gloom for another day.

We're still locked in a cold air wedge, and those conditions are very stubborn to break down. Weather computer models aren't very good are predicting when the wedges will end, tending to kill them off too early.

Such was the case Monday, when the models -- and some forecasts -- called for partial sunshine to return by late morning in Charlotte. Then that forecast became afternoon, and now some predictions are saying late afternoon. That sounds right.

The wedge will dissipate from the west, with the mountains and western South Carolina being the first to see the sun. But heavy, cold, damp air has piled up against the mountains, covering the Piedmont. And it will take quite a while for warmer air to mix down and scour out the clouds.

Temperatures likely will rise from the upper 40s Tuesday morning to the upper 50s by afternoon. But that's more than 15 degrees below the average high for this time of year.

There will be a reward after all this, though.

Partly to mostly sunny skies are likely Wednesday, with highs climbing back near average for this time of year (mid 70s). A weak cold front will cross the region Wednesday night, so Thursday's highs will be a few degrees cooler, in the upper 60s. But sunshine will return.

Then a real warm-up commences for the weekend, with highs in the low to mid 70s Friday and Saturday, climbing to the upper 70s for Sunday and Monday.

Sandy's gift to us: Cold air

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The Charlotte region will escape all but the edges of Hurricane Sandy as it moves up the East Coast this weekend, but as Sandy reaches the Mid-Atlantic coast and morphs into a super storm, it will contribute to a very cold stretch of weather next week in the area.

The cold air already was coming.  The big storm to our north will help make it even chillier.

In fact, if you like the warm weather, get outside this afternoon.  This is pretty much the finale.

Temperatures are in the mid and upper 70s Friday afternoon, but a cold front is approaching from the west. That front is predicted to stall Saturday in the mountains, but clouds from Hurricane Sandy will push into the Charlotte region.

A pressure gradient -- or difference in pressure -- between high pressure behind the front and low pressure from Sandy will help create rather gusty winds Saturday in Charlotte. The bottom line of all this: Clouds, a high in the upper 60s, and winds gusting to 25 or maybe even 30 mph (especially east of Charlotte) in the afternoon.

Outer rain bands from the hurricane are likely to cross the eastern part of the Charlotte region, especially in Anson, Richmond and Montgomery counties.

Then as Sandy pushes north of the Carolinas, the cold front will cross Charlotte, and temperatures will tumble. The coldest air won't arrive until Monday, so we're likely to eke out another day in the mid 60s Sunday, probably with a return of sunshine.

But our highs Monday through Wednesday likely will be in the low to mid 50s. The strong counter-clockwise circulation around the big storm to our north will bring cold air into the region.

Temperatures during trick-or-treating for Halloween on Wednesday evening probably will be in the low 50s.

There's another little twist to all this.  The strong northerly flow behind the storm and cold front could even trigger a few snow showers in the mountains. Heavy snow is not expected, though.  We're talking about snow showers that might coat the ground for a while. That would happen Sunday night, according to meteorologists.

Proving Quantum Computers Feasible

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With a new contribution to probability theory, researchers show that relatively simple physical systems could yield powerful quantum computers.

Quantum computers are devices — still largely theoretical — that could perform certain types of computations much faster than classical computers; one way they might do that is by exploiting “spin,” a property of tiny particles of matter. A “spin chain,” in turn, is a standard model that physicists use to describe systems of quantum particles, including some that could be the basis for quantum computers.
The possible quantum states of a chain of particles can be represented as points in space, with lines connecting states that can be swapped with no change in the chain's total energy. MIT researchers and their colleagues showed that such networks are densely interconnected, with heavily trafficked pathways between points. Graphic: Christine Daniloff

Many quantum algorithms require that particles’ spins be “entangled,” meaning that they’re all dependent on each other. The more entanglement a physical system offers, the greater its computational power. Until now, theoreticians have demonstrated the possibility of high entanglement only in a very complex spin chain, which would be difficult to realize experimentally. In simpler systems, the degree of entanglement appeared to be capped: Beyond a certain point, adding more particles to the chain didn’t seem to increase the entanglement.

This month, however, in the journal Physical Review Letters, a group of researchers at MIT, IBM, Masaryk University in the Czech Republic, the Slovak Academy of Sciences and Northeastern University proved that even in simple spin chains, the degree of entanglement scales with the length of the chain. The research thus offers strong evidence that relatively simple quantum systems could offer considerable computational resources.

In quantum physics, the term “spin” describes the way that tiny particles of matter align in a magnetic field: A particle with spin up aligns in one direction, a particle with spin down in the opposite direction. But subjecting a particle to multiple fields at once can cause it to align in other directions, somewhere between up and down. In a complex enough system, a particle might have dozens of possible spin states.

A spin chain is just what it sounds like: a bunch of particles in a row, analyzed according to their spin. A spin chain whose particles have only two spin states exhibits no entanglement. But in the new paper, MIT professor of mathematics Peter Shor, his former student Ramis Movassagh, who is now an instructor at Northeastern, and their colleagues showed that unbounded entanglement is possible in chains of particles with only three spin states — up, down and none. Systems of such particles should, in principle, be much easier to build than those whose particles have more spin states.

Tangled up

The phenomenon of entanglement is related to the central mystery of quantum physics: the ability of a single particle to be in multiple mutually exclusive states at once. Electrons, photons and other fundamental particles can, in some sense, be in more than one place at the same time. Similarly, they can have more than one spin at once. If you try to measure the location, spin or some other quantum property of a particle, however, you’ll get a definite answer: The particle will snap into just one of its possible states.

If two particles are entangled, then performing a measurement on one tells you something about the other. For instance, if you measure the spin of an electron orbiting a helium atom, and its spin is up, the spin of the other electron in the same orbit must be down, and vice versa. For a chain of particles to be useful for quantum computing, all of their spins need to be entangled. If, at some point, adding more particles to the chain ceases to increase entanglement, then it also ceases to increase computational capacity.

To show that entanglement increases without bound in chains of three-spin particles, the researchers proved that any such chain with a net energy of zero could be converted into any other through a small number of energy-preserving substitutions. The proof is kind of like one of those puzzles where you have to convert one word into another of the same length, changing only one letter at a time.

“Energy preserving” just means that changing the spins of two adjacent particles doesn’t change their total energy. For instance, if two adjacent particles have spin up and spin down, they have the same energy as two adjacent particles with no spin. Similarly, swapping the spins of two adjacent particles leaves their energy the same. Here, the “puzzle” is to convert one spin chain into another using only these and a couple of other substitutions.

No bottlenecks

If you envision every set of definite spins for a chain of three-spin particles as a point in space, and draw lines only between those that that are interchangeable using energy-preserving substitutions, then you end up with a dense network, with the points on the edges as well connected as the points in the center.

“If you want to go from any state to another state, it has high conductivity,” Movassagh says. “It’s like, if you have a town with a bunch of alleys, and you want to go from any neighborhood to any other, you can only go rapidly if there’s no one road that’s necessary to use and congested.” To prove that, in systems of three-spin particles, transitions between sets of spin were possible through these “back alleys,” Movassagh says, “we proved something that we think is new in probability theory.”

“It’s been known that if the particles can have constant but rather high dimension” — that is, number of possible spin states — “the entanglement can be pretty high,” says Sandy Irani, a professor of computer science at the University of California at Irvine who specializes in quantum computation. “But the requirement is that these little particles have something like dimension 14, 15, 16. In terms of what people are actually looking at experimentally, they’re looking at very low-dimensional things. Having particles of dimension of 15, 16, is much more difficult to bring about in the lab.”

Shor, Movassagh and their colleagues, Irani says, “have shown that if you just step up from two to three, the entanglement can actually grow with the number of particles.”

Irani cautions, however, that the new paper shows only that entanglement scales logarithmically with the length of the spin chain. “If you go up to these larger-dimension particles, in the teens, you get entanglement that can scale with the number of particles instead of the log of the number of particles,” she says, “and that may be required for quantum computing.”

Contacts and sources:
Larry HardestyMIT News Office
Related links:
Paper: “Criticality without frustration for quantum spin-1 chains”
Peter Shor
Department of Mathematics
ARCHIVE: “The quantum singularity”

Sometimes I do it Just to do it like it's Nothing.

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H&M sweater/ UO platform/ Brandy Melville Bucket bag/ Cotton on Hat
I'm so overwhelmed with all the love on Instagram! I now have over 18,000 followers and you guys are the reason why I decided to open my very own Online Vintage Shop! I'm super excited for this and I really can't wait for all you guys to finally be able to browse and shop through it. I will be selling things you guys have asked for, meaning some items will be vintage(used) and some will be brand new. Either way, I'm super excited and will definitely keep you guys updated.

Out come the winter clothes

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Sweaters, sweatshirts and other cold-weather clothing that has been stored away since last winter is making a reappearance Monday across the Charlotte region.

Blame it on a cold air wedge -- that weather situation in which cool, damp air is carried into the Piedmont off the Atlantic Ocean and wedged against the mountains. Clouds form, and temperatures go nowhere.  In fact, in most cold air wedges, the temperature is 15 to 25 degrees below the seasonal average.

That's the case Monday in the region.

The temperature fell from 60 degrees at 1 p.m. Sunday, gradually sliding through the upper, middle and then lower 50s.  It's been hovering between 50 and 51 degrees for most of the day and probably will go no higher.

Actually, we're on track for our coldest day since early March. The high temperature so far Monday at Charlotte-Douglas International Airport is 54 degrees, recorded around 3 a.m. That would be our chilliest high temperature reading since March 4 and 5, when the high was 53 degrees.

By my count, this is the third cold air wedge in our region in the past two weeks, and I've written before that they are bad, bad news in the winter.  Most of our ice storms and sleet events happen during wedge situations.

The National Weather Service had been predicting widespread showers this afternoon, but that is looking unlikely, with most of the rain staying west and northwest of the region, falling across eastern Tennessee and Kentucky. The mountains are most likely to see rain Monday, although a few showers could spread into the Charlotte region.

The same thick clouds that prevent temperatures from climbing also stop much of a thermometer drop at night. In a normal situation with highs in the low 50s, we could expect low to mid 30s at night -- and our first frost or freeze of the season. But since this is an "artificial" chilly day -- kept cool by clouds, rather than an actual mass of very cold air -- our overnight lows will only drop into the low to mid 40s.

And if the clouds hang around all night, we might not drop much lower than 50 degrees.

Cold air wedges are difficult to break down, and they usually last longer than computer models predict. So look for more clouds Tuesday morning, before the wedge finally dissipates in the afternoon, some sunshine returns, and highs climb into the lower 60s.

Things should return to normal Wednesday, with highs back in the middle 70s.

Don't expect much improvement today

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I could be wrong about this, and I hope I'm wrong.

But if you're planning your wardrobe for Tuesday, expect Charlotte's weather to be an awful lot like Monday's.

You might have heard forecasts for some clearing Tuesday afternoon, but chances are any clearing in the immediate Charlotte area won't happen until shortly before sunset. In other words, we'll remain in the gloom for another day.

We're still locked in a cold air wedge, and those conditions are very stubborn to break down. Weather computer models aren't very good are predicting when the wedges will end, tending to kill them off too early.

Such was the case Monday, when the models -- and some forecasts -- called for partial sunshine to return by late morning in Charlotte. Then that forecast became afternoon, and now some predictions are saying late afternoon. That sounds right.

The wedge will dissipate from the west, with the mountains and western South Carolina being the first to see the sun. But heavy, cold, damp air has piled up against the mountains, covering the Piedmont. And it will take quite a while for warmer air to mix down and scour out the clouds.

Temperatures likely will rise from the upper 40s Tuesday morning to the upper 50s by afternoon. But that's more than 15 degrees below the average high for this time of year.

There will be a reward after all this, though.

Partly to mostly sunny skies are likely Wednesday, with highs climbing back near average for this time of year (mid 70s). A weak cold front will cross the region Wednesday night, so Thursday's highs will be a few degrees cooler, in the upper 60s. But sunshine will return.

Then a real warm-up commences for the weekend, with highs in the low to mid 70s Friday and Saturday, climbing to the upper 70s for Sunday and Monday.

Winter weather postponed ... but for how long?

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You might remember a week or so ago that I wrote about the computer models predicting an outbreak of very cold weather around the beginning of December.

Forget about it.

The king of weather for the eastern United States is a low pressure system off the Pacific Coast. It's called a positive East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) -- one of the many ingredients that goes into creating our weather. Here's what it means.

The positive EPO tends to send Pacific air masses into the central and eastern part of the country. For the most part, the atmospheric flow is zonal -- sort of like a flat west-to-east line.  There are some wrinkles, of course, but you get the basic idea. When that happens, our weather tends to be mild.

The pattern hasn't been exactly west-to-east in recent weeks, because a northwest flow has delivered some chilly air into the Carolinas. But the positive EPO has prevented the really cold air in Alaska from descending southward. High temperatures are below zero this week in Fairbanks.

Several factors are needed for wintry weather to develop in the Carolinas. They include a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and possibly a strong high pressure system near Greenland.  That tends to send the really cold air into the eastern part of the United States. Add a stormy pattern, and you get snow, sleet and freezing rain.

We actually have a negative NAO now, but the positive EPO is overwhelming it -- blocking the cold air from coming south.

In addition to the positive EPO, we're also in a decidedly non-stormy pattern. Rainfall this month is more than 2 inches below average.

So how long will all this ask?

As usual, the computer models disagree.  But based on the many forecasts I've read in the last day or two, there seems a consensus that we'll stay mild through at least the first half of December.

In other words, the start of winter has been postponed.

Then again, December is typically not a big month for snow and ice in the Carolinas. That happened in 2010, but it's unusual. Most years, January and February are the real wintry months.

We need a change in the non-stormy situation.  Rainfall is badly needed, but there aren't many signs of that changing within the next 10 days either.

In the immediate future, this mild pattern means we'll be flirting with 70 degrees early next week.

CHILLY NOVEMBER: We're approaching the end of what has been a chilly month in Charlotte. The average temperature for November is 3.2 degrees below average, which makes this among the 15 coldest Novembers since records started being kept in Charlotte in the 1870s.

Sunday morning's low of 21 degrees marks the earliest it has been that cold in four years. Charlotte had a record-breaking low of 13 degrees on Nov. 22, 2008, and it dropped to 18 degrees a few days earlier. That month was 5.7 degrees below the average.

Temperatures the next few days will be around average, and it's doubtful that we'll see any more 20s in the remaining days of the month.

I'll Wear my Sunnies Even In the Dark.

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Gifted Leopard Shorts/ Vintage Sunnies + Bag/ UO Corset/ Deena & Ozzy Booties
I've been really into Leopard print lately especially when I received these amazing Leopard Short! I think leopard print will never go out of style and I also think you can pull off wearing it during any season, just depends on how and what you wear it with. In another note, I wanted to thank all my new followers and thank you guys for all the great comments and support.

Sometimes I do it Just to do it like it's Nothing.

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H&M sweater/ UO platform/ Brandy Melville Bucket bag/ Cotton on Hat
I'm so overwhelmed with all the love on Instagram! I now have over 18,000 followers and you guys are the reason why I decided to open my very own Online Vintage Shop! I'm super excited for this and I really can't wait for all you guys to finally be able to browse and shop through it. I will be selling things you guys have asked for, meaning some items will be vintage(used) and some will be brand new. Either way, I'm super excited and will definitely keep you guys updated.

Out of the 70's.

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One Sleeve Dress c/o SugarLips / Vintage Bag & Sunnies / Jessica Simpson Dany
The first time I saw this dress it totally reminded me of the 70's and I think that's why I immanently fell in love with it! I'm deeply oblessed with that era and their fashion. Every time I watch movies and tv shows inspired by the 70's such as, "That 70's show" and "Boogie Nights" I drool over their clothes. Flair Jens, floral prints and big sun glasses, big hair and of course a lot of printed maxi dresses. Get this amazing dress over at sugarlips.com!

Sincerly, Rubi.

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Ruffle shorts c/o Sincerly ALC / UO tank / Vintage Sunnies / JC Lita's / Faux fur
This season I can't stop wearing my faux fur jackets! They're so warm, comfy and I think they make any outfit. I decided to pair my ruffle shorts with this black one. I love the way these shorts fit and I also love the fact that they're so light weight. Hope everyone had a great weekend and happy Monday :)

Ombre Sunset.

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Ombre Shall c/o Mila and Fire milaandfire/ F21 Black High Waist Shorts / Jessica Simpson Dany
Even if its not summer still, I'm seriously obsessed with this amazing ombre shall from Milaandfire.com. I discovered their vintage shop a few months ago & I'm totally obsessed with all their vintage selection. Such amazing, one of a kind pieces in such affordable prices! Make sure to check them out if you love VINTAGE! I had so much fun shooting this outfit, I hope you guys love it!

Couch Potatoes No More: Video Game Will Fight Obesity

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Reversing the image of the sedentary game player, a new video game under development by University of California, Davis, researchers will encourage children to strengthen their action-hero characters by logging miles walked and calories burned in the real world.

Researchers in the UC Davis School of Education and Foods for Health Institute are teaming with a professional game designer to create the game, which requires players to enter personal health data and set physical goals. The project is funded with a two-year, $500,000 grant from the National Science Foundation aimed at fighting childhood obesity.

“Gamers project their identities into game play in various ways already, but we are particularly interested in what might happen if the avatar in a game is tied directly to the gamer’s body and his or her actions outside the game,” said Cynthia Carter Ching, a grant recipient and School of Education professor who also is an expert in learning with technology.

Ching and her colleagues, J. Bruce German and Sara Schaefer, both from the UC Davis Foods for Health Institute, and Marta Van Loan, from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Western Human Nutrition Research Center, are teaming up with Play4Change, a nonprofit led by Ariel Hauter that develops serious games for social causes.

The game is scheduled to be in use by health educators in select South Sacramento schools next spring for 11- to 14-year-old students.


The project, “GET-UP: Gaming to Educate Teens about Understanding Personal Health,” will have youth participating in the initial development, testing and launch of the game. They will wear activity-monitor devices that measure such things as steps walked, floors climbed and calories burned. These data, along with diet logs and health and nutrition information they receive prior to play, inform the choices youth make and their rate of progress in their journey through the game.

For example, a student who records more physical activity on a given day may find that their avatar is faster and stronger the next time they log in to the game. As a result, the student can see short-term positive rewards for their healthy actions — such as not eating a dessert or walking after school — long before they lose weight or change sizes, Ching said.

“Recreational games are often blamed for kids’ obesity, and some gaming platforms like Wii Fit and X-box Kinnect have tried to make gaming itself more active, but our approach is different,” said Ching. “It’s exciting to see if, instead, we can leverage games to positively affect behavior that impacts physical fitness even when the gamer is not playing.”

GET-UP will be offered to students participating in programs supported through the California Afterschool Network, housed in the UC Davis School of Education.

More information about the game’s development.

A Complete Solution For Oil-Spill Cleanup

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Scientists are describing what may be a “complete solution” to cleaning up oil spills — a superabsorbent material that sops up 40 times its own weight in oil and then can be shipped to an oil refinery and processed to recover the oil. Their article on the material appears in ACS’ journal Energy & Fuels.

T. C. Mike Chung and Xuepei Yuan point out that current methods for coping with oil spills like the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster are low-tech, decades-old and have many disadvantages. Corncobs, straw and other absorbents, for instance, can hold only about 5 times their own weight and pick up water, as well as oil. Those materials then become industrial waste that must be disposed of in special landfills or burned.

A complete solution for oil-spill cleanup may lie in a new superabsorbent material that transforms
an oil slick into a soft, easily removed gel.
Credit: iStock

Their solution is a polymer material that transforms an oil spill into a soft, solid oil-containing gel. One pound of the material can recover about 5 gallons of crude oil. The gel is strong enough to be collected and transported. Then, it can be converted to a liquid and refined like regular crude oil. That oil would be worth $15 when crude oil sells for $100 a barrel. “Overall, this cost-effective new polyolefin oil-SAP technology shall dramatically reduce the environmental impacts from oil spills and help recover one of our most precious natural resources,” the authors said.

The authors acknowledge funding from the National Science Foundation andBen Franklin Technology Partners.


Source: American Chemical Society

Citation: “A Novel Solution to Oil Spill Recovery; Using Thermodegradable Polyolefin Oil Super-absorbent (oil-SAP)”Energy & Fuels

ELE: Humanity’s Last Invention And Our Uncertain Future

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A philosopher, a scientist and a software engineer have come together to propose a new centre at Cambridge to address developments in human technologies that might pose “extinction-level” risks to our species, from biotechnology to artificial intelligence.

In 1965, Irving John ‘Jack’ Good sat down and wrote a paper for New Scientist called Speculations concerning the first ultra-intelligent machine. Good, a Cambridge-trained mathematician, Bletchley Park cryptographer, pioneering computer scientist and friend of Alan Turing, wrote that in the near future an ultra-intelligent machine would be built.

This machine, he continued, would be the “last invention” that mankind will ever make, leading to an “intelligence explosion” – an exponential increase in self-generating machine intelligence. For Good, who went on to advise Stanley Kubrick on 2001: a Space Odyssey, the “survival of man” depended on the construction of this ultra-intelligent machine.
Light cycles

Credit: Jason A. Samfield from Flickr
Fast forward almost 50 years and the world looks very different. Computers dominate modern life across vast swathes of the planet, underpinning key functions of global governance and economics, increasing precision in healthcare, monitoring identity and facilitating most forms of communication – from the paradigm shifting to the most personally intimate. Technology advances for the most part unchecked and unabated.

While few would deny the benefits humanity has received as a result of its engineering genius – from longer life to global networks – some are starting to question whether the acceleration of human technologies will result in the survival of man, as Good contended, or if in fact this is the very thing that will end us.

Now a philosopher, a scientist and a software engineer have come together to propose a new centre at Cambridge, the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), to address these cases – from developments in bio and nanotechnology to extreme climate change and even artificial intelligence – in which technology might pose “extinction-level” risks to our species.

“At some point, this century or next, we may well be facing one of the major shifts in human history – perhaps even cosmic history – when intelligence escapes the constraints of biology,” says Huw Price, the Bertrand Russell Professor of Philosophy and one of CSER’s three founders, speaking about the possible impact of Good’s ultra-intelligent machine, or artificial general intelligence (AGI) as we call it today.

“Nature didn’t anticipate us, and we in our turn shouldn’t take AGI for granted. We need to take seriously the possibility that there might be a ‘Pandora’s box’ moment with AGI that, if missed, could be disastrous. I don’t mean that we can predict this with certainty, no one is presently in a position to do that, but that’s the point! With so much at stake, we need to do a better job of understanding the risks of potentially catastrophic technologies.”

Price’s interest in AGI risk stems from a chance meeting with Jaan Tallinn, a former software engineer who was one of the founders of Skype, which – like Google and Facebook – has become a digital cornerstone. In recent years Tallinn has become an evangelist for the serious discussion of ethical and safety aspects of AI and AGI, and Price was intrigued by his view:

“He (Tallinn) said that in his pessimistic moments he felt he was more likely to die from an AI accident than from cancer or heart disease. I was intrigued that someone with his feet so firmly on the ground in the industry should see it as such a serious issue, and impressed by his commitment to do something about it.”

We Homo sapiens have, for Tallinn, become optimised – in the sense that we now control the future, having grabbed the reins from 4 billion years of natural evolution. Our technological progress has by and large replaced evolution as the dominant, future-shaping force.

We move faster, live longer, and can destroy at a ferocious rate. And we use our technology to do it. AI geared to specific tasks continues its rapid development – from financial trading to face recognition – and the power of computing chips doubles every two years in accordance with Moore’s law, as set out by Intel founder Gordon Moore in the same year that Good predicted the ultra-intelligence machine.

We know that ‘dumb matter’ can think, say Price and Tallinn – biology has already solved that problem, in a container the size of our skulls. That’s a fixed cap to the level of complexity required, and it seems irresponsible, they argue, to assume that the rising curve of computing complexity will not reach and even exceed that bar in the future. The critical point might come if computers reach human capacity to write computer programs and develop their own technologies. This, Good’s “intelligence explosion”, might be the point we are left behind – permanently – to a future-defining AGI.

“Think how it might be to compete for resources with the dominant species,” says Price. “Take gorillas for example – the reason they are going extinct is not because humans are actively hostile towards them, but because we control the environments in ways that suit us, but are detrimental to their survival.”

Price and Tallinn stress the uncertainties in these projections, but point out that this simply underlines the need to know more about AGI and other kinds of technological risk.

In Cambridge, Price introduced Tallinn to Lord Martin Rees, former Master of Trinity College and President of the Royal Society, whose own work on catastrophic risk includes his books Our Final Century (2003) and From Here to Infinity: Scientific Horizons (2011). The three formed an alliance, aiming to establish CSER.

With luminaries in science, policy, law, risk and computing from across the University and beyond signing up to become advisors, the project is, even in its earliest days, gathering momentum. “The basic philosophy is that we should be taking seriously the fact that we are getting to the point where our technologies have the potential to threaten our own existence – in a way that they simply haven’t up to now, in human history,” says Price. “We should be investing a little of our intellectual resources in shifting some probability from bad outcomes to good ones.”

Price acknowledges that some of these ideas can seem far-fetched, the stuff of science fiction, but insists that that’s part of the point. “To the extent – presently poorly understood – that there are significant risks, it’s an additional danger if they remain for these sociological reasons outside the scope of ‘serious’ investigation.”

“What better place than Cambridge, one of the oldest of the world’s great scientific universities, to give these issues the prominence and academic respectability that they deserve?” he adds. “We hope that CSER will be a place where world class minds from a variety of disciplines can collaborate in exploring technological risks in both the near and far future.

“Cambridge recently celebrated its 800th anniversary – our aim is to reduce the risk that we might not be around to celebrate its millennium.”

For more information on the Centre for Study of Existential Risk, visit http://cser.org/


Contacts and sources:
Fred Lewsey  University of Cambridge

Hurricane Sandy's Transformation

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A lot has been said of the severe damage that may accompany Hurricane Sandy---10-20 inches of precipitation west and southwest of the storm, coastal wind gusts exceeding 80 mph, severe damage to barrier beaches, flooding over western L.I. sound and other vulnerable locations.  The threat is great and imminent.

But what has not been discussed in depth is the extraordinary transformation that will occur as Sandy makes landfall and moves inland....from a tropical to an extratropical storm, the first with a warm core and the latter with a cold core.  I will talk about that here.

Right now Hurricane Sandy is almost exactly one day from landfall on New Jersey.  It possesses sustained winds of 75 mph and a central pressure of 950 hPa, and is very large storm and will expand even more.  Here is a recent infrared image, showing the band of moisture feeding into the center of the storm.


As I have mentioned before, hurricanes and tropical storms derive their energy from the warmth and moisture of warm oceans, and Sandy is no exception.  Such tropical storms are warm-core systems, with the warmest air in their centers.  In general, tropical storms are not found in regions with large horizontal changes in temperature.

 Recently, there has been a substantial warm anomaly of the sea surface temperature (SST) of the western Atlantic (SST much warmer than normal), which helps tropical systems like Sandy move northward and stay strong longer than normal.  Here is a recent map showing the SST anomaly:  much warmer than normal along the path of Sandy, by over 1.5C!  So a very attractive welcome mat had been laid for tropical storms over the western Atlantic.


Now midlatitude or extratropical storms get their energy not from warm oceans, but rather horizontal temperature changes---generally warmer to the south, cooler to the north.  It turns out that the temperature changes on our planet are concentrated in the midlatitudes...and this temperature gradient fuels nearly all of the storms we experience in the winter.  Midlatitude storms tend to be cold-core, with the coolest temperatures in their center.

Sometimes a tropical storm moves northward and undergoes an amazing transformation, from a warm core tropical system to a cold-core extratropical system, and switches its energy supply from the warmth and moisture of a tropical ocean to the temperature gradients of the midlatitudes.  This is called Extratropical Transition (ET) in the business.

Sandy is about to go through the transformation.

Let me show you.  The figures below show you the temperatures and pressure pattern (actually heights of the 850 hPa pressure surface) at around 5000 ft above sea level for three times (Monday morning, Monday evening, and Tuesday morning--Seattle Time).  At the initial time there is warm air at the center of the storm (the dark orange color).  Fairly symmetric structure (which is typical of tropical systems).


By tomorrow evening, just as the storm is making landfall,  the warm core is fading, and temperature structure is becoming much more asymmetric.

 By Tuesday morning, the transformation is complete....cold air has reached the center of the storm and the warmest air is found far to the east of the center


Many tropical storms weaken when they go through this transition, but for a small subset the opposite occurs.   The two energy sources work synergistically for a while, resulting in an strengthening and expanding system....such is the forecast fate of Sandy.

In fact, during this transition stage, Sandy will continue to intensity until it makes landfall.  Here is the latest forecast from the NWS NAM model:

956 hPa low center at 2 AM Monday morning (PDT)


12 hours later 948 hPa pressure (2 PM Seattle Time).


My next blog will take a look at the scorecard for this storm....and return to talking about Northwest weather.  And there is a lot to talk about, including an atmospheric river situation setting up and 5-10 inches forecast over the next 72 hr over NW mountains.