One major highway after another has been closed for extended periods recently as hundreds of snow-encased trees have fallen over the roadways, including SR-2 across the central Cascades, the Mount Baker Highway, RT 6 and 101, on the Olympics Peninsula. Large deposits of snow weighted the trees down until they toppled over.
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| Mount Baker Highway: WSDOT Photo |
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| Mount Baker Highway: WSDOT Photo |
| SR-101 Closed |
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| SR-2 Trees Leaning Over: WSDOT Photo |
So were the trees falling? We have had periods of more snow, of more wind, of more rain. Periods that were colder. What is different this time?
Let's play detective!
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| When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth....S. Holmes |
The last month has been a wet one over the region and the mountains have gotten large amounts of snow. But other years have had as much or more snow in the mountains (e.g., 98-99) without so many trees coming down. So snowfall alone is not the answer.
What about the locations and altitudes? The SR-2 tree falls occurred about 10 miles west of Leavenworth at an altitude of roughly 2400 ft (see mapP

The Mount Baker Highway tree falls occurred east of Maple Falls (see map, east of red A). Elevation about 1400 ft.
U.S. 101 on the Olympic Peninsula was closed between Shelton and Brinnon with trees downed not far from sea level. So the elevations varied.
I think there is an answer. There is something that all these elevations had in common during the period, something that I believe caused massive tree falls. So let me give you my hypothesis. Let's consider the facts, my dear Watson.
Fact 1: We know that the trees fell when they were weighted down with snow.
Fact 2: Snow is most "sticky" near and just below freezing (say mid-20s to freezing)
Fact 3: During really cold periods (our Arctic outbreaks) snow tends to be lighter, less sticky, and more easily blown off trees.
Fact 4: Major warm up periods (e.g., pineapple express atmospheric river periods) have very high freezing levels and rain at most elevations, resulting in melting and washing off snow from trees.
There WERE some unusual aspects of the past few weeks that allowed large amounts of snow to stick on trees until they fell over.
Thinks about it. This month we did not have any major Arctic, cold-air, outbreaks. So no really cold, light snow that doesn't stick well. We have NOT had any pineapple expresses or warm up periods that would melt the snow at a wide range of elevations. In fact, recent temperatures in the mountains have been AMAZINGLY steady. Let me demonstrate this.
Take a look at the temperatures (red daily high, blue daily low) at the Winton weather station run by the WA DOT. Winton (MTWINT, roughly at 2000 ft MSL) is several miles north of Leavenworth on RT 2...not far from the tree falls. Or Nason Creek (a bit farther north at 2000 MSL as well).
What about the Mt. Baker Highway tree falls? Lets consider the Maple Falls station (a bit lower--670ft--than the section with the tree falls). AGAIN, amazingly constant temperatures in mid-December, with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows around 30F. Go a little higher, to where the trees were falling, and temperatures were surely cooler..right in the range of maximum stickiness and deposition.
Certainly, not "elementary."





The Climate Prediction Center prediction for the next 6-10 days is drier than normal for most of the west:
The origin of this boon is a major switch in circulation, with persistent ridging along the West Coast. Here are some sample upper level charts for Sunday and Tuesday:
What a wonderful opportunity to clean leaves out of your gutters and rake up leaves in your sodden yards....or to enjoy an outdoor walk or bike ride.

This is NOT going to be big snow event. Here is the model forecast from this morning, showing the 24-h total snowfall prediction over the region. Not more than about 1-2 inches in the most favored zones. Nothing over the Seattle Metro area (sorry, Jim Forman). Portland gets some white stuff.
But one piece of good news...after this low moves south of us, expect a lot of sun on Tuesday. New Year's will start on a bright foot...an excellent omen for the new year.
But we can go further. December 2012 is tied for darkest December with December 2007. So December 2012 was as bad as we have seen during this century! That is enough to give nearly anyone a bad case of SAD (Seasonal Affective Disorder) and turn on their interior floodlights.
But there bright, lustrous` news..today January 1 is virtually clear over much of western Washington and Oregon. Don't believe me? Look outside or check out the latest image from my department's web cam looking towards Mt. Rainier.
Some of you near the water have some fog right now, but most of that will burn off. Only those in the fog/stratus laden basin of eastern Washington will be denied the sun's face.
winds in the Gorge, with some "favored" spots hitting 70-80 mph. One of the windiest places is the Vista House at Crown Point, where recent gusts have hit 78 mph, with sustained winds in the 40+ mph range (see graphic).
